Northern Colorado Real Estate Markets Stats

While this class is about real estate market stats in Northern Colorado, many of the same stats should be considered if you’re implementing the Nomad model in other real estate markets.

The following is the outline and additional resources for the class called Northern Colorado Real Estate Markets Stats. Here’s also the video recording of the live presentation I gave on January 3, 2017.

Important Note: The images of charts below may not match the images of charts in the video, but clicking on the images of charts below should take you to the most up-to-date version of the chart (not just the static image of the chart).

Plus… The charts you click to are dynamic, interactive versions of the charts that allow you to turn on and off data sets, mouse over to see values and much more (depending on the chart).

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Watch the recording of the live presentation of "Making Strong Offers that Get Accepted" available on:

https://LearnToBeRich.com/making-strong-offers-that-get-accepted/

Mark this task as complete once you've watched it.

ClassesFirst Meeting: Write OfferMaking OffersMarket StatsUltimate Nomad ChecklistWeek 59Week 7

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Watch the recording of the live presentation of "Low Ball Offer Case Studies" available on:

https://LearnToBeRich.com/low-ball-offer/

Mark this task as complete once you've watched it.

ASAPClassesFirst Meeting: Write OfferMarket StatsUltimate Nomad ChecklistWeek 59Week 7

More info about this task...
Watch the recording of the live presentation of "Northern Colorado Real Estate Markets Stats" available on:

https://LearnToBeRich.com/northern-colorado-real-estate-markets-stats/

Mark this task as complete once you've watched it.

ASAPClassesMarket StatsUltimate Nomad ChecklistWeek 30

Class Objectives and Overview

  • Stats Covered
  • Number of Listings
    • Number of Listings (Attached Versus Detached)
    • Number of Listings with % Change Year-Over-Year
    • Relative Number of Listings for Various Northern Colorado Cities
    • Number of Listings (Seasonality)
    • Number of Listings Year-Over-Year
    • Number of Duplexes, Triplexes, 4-plexes and 5+ units
  • Number of Homes Sold
  • Average Sold Price/List Price
    • Historical Sold Price/List Price with Percentiles
    • Historical Average Sold/List as %
    • Sold Price/List Price by Week (last 2 years)
    • Low Ball Offers
  • Sold Price
    • Average Sold Price
    • Median Sold Price
    • Return On Investment – Our Long-Term Average versus What Happened Last Year
  • Average Sold Price/Total Sq Ft
    • Better measurement
    • Historical Sold Price/TSF with Percentiles
    • Historical Sold Price/TSF Comparing Cities
  • Appreciation
    • Appreciation Rates – SFH versus Multi-Units
    • Duplex Price/Unit with Percentiles
    • Residential Multi-Unit Price/Unit with Percentiles
    • Sold Price/TSF New versus Resale
  • Days on Market
    • Average Days on Market
    • Days on Market Seasonality
  • Months of Inventory (Absorption Rate)
    • Historical Months of Inventory
    • Historical Months of Inventory by Price Band
    • Table of Months of Inventory By Price Band
    • Months of Inventory Year-Over-Year Chart
  • Fix and Flips and Distressed Property Stats
    • Number of Foreclosures
    • Number of Short Sales
    • Number of Fix and Flips with > $30K Spread Chart
    • Number of Fix and Flips with > $30K Spread Table
    • Fix and Flip Average Gross Profit
    • Taxes/List Price with Fix and Flip Scatter Chart
    • Taxes/List Price with Fix and Flip Percentiles Chart
  • Cash on Cash Return
  • Predictions for next year

Stats Covered

  • Supply and Demand
    • Number of Listings
    • Number Sold
    • Months of Inventory
  • Days On Market
  • Sold Price
  • Sold/List Price
  • Fix and Flips and distressed properties
  • Cash on Cash return

I’ll post the recording online after the class. Clients get free access.

Clients can access the most up-to-date version of these stats on my website. The URL will be in blue on each slide.

Number of Listings: Table

Table of number of homes for sale for various Northern Colorado cities.

  • We saw a significant decrease in the number of detached homes for sale in Fort Collins, Loveland Greeley. Windsor increased with significant help from new construction.
  • Attached in Windsor also increased, while Loveland and Greeley saw a decline in attached units. Fort Collins was about the same.

Number of Listings: Charts

Charts of the number of homes for sale for various Northern Colorado cities and broken out by attached, detached and combined.

Number of Listings: Charts: Attached

Clients who have access to charts on JamesOrr.com can click on the chart to be taken to the most up-to-date version of the interactive chart on JamesOrr.com.

Number of Listings: Charts: Detached

Number of Listings: Charts: Attached, Detached, Combined

Number of Listings: Charts: Combined – All Cities

Number of Listings: Charts: Seasonality

The following chart shows the number of listings per month (both attached and detached combined into one number) for the four cities in Northern Colorado. It shows you the seasonality of listings… we tend to get more listings in the spring, summer and fall.

Below is the same chart, except showing fewer years to give you a slightly different view of the seasonality.

Number of Listings: Charts: Year-Over-Year

The following charts the number of new listing per month for this year and last year plus the light lines also show the previous 8 additional years so you can see the relative number of listings for both this year, last year and the previous 8 years.

Clients who have access to charts on JamesOrr.com can click on the chart to be taken to the most up-to-date version of the interactive chart on JamesOrr.com.

The following shows the number of listings of single family homes (detached properties) in Fort Collins by week.

Number of Multi-Unit Listings Charts

If you want to buy a duplex, you better be willing to act quickly and bid aggressively to get one. There are not that many that come up for sale each year.

Not many triplexes either.

Few 4-plexes too.

While not usually Nomad properties, this shows you how many greater than 4 unit (5 unit and up) properties were listed for sale.

Number of Listings: Chart: HOA versus No HOA

Number of Homes Sold: Table

Table of number of homes sold for various Northern Colorado cities.

Number of Homes Sold: Charts

The following is a chart showing the number of homes sold per year for the four major cities in Northern Colorado. It is combining attached and detached.

The chart below shows the number of homes sold per month for four cities in Northern Colorado. It combines attached and detached.

Sold Price to List Price: Table

Sold Price to List Price: Chart: Attached

The following are the charts for sold price to list price ratio (as percent) for four different cities in Northern Colorado with the yearly rate of change. It is only attached units.

Comparing all attached for the four cities to each other.

Sold Price to List Price: Chart: Detached

Here are the same charts for single family homes, detached homes.

Sold Price to List Price: Chart: Attached Versus Detached

Here are the same charts but showing the attached and detached on the same chart to compare them for the same city.

Are properties with HOAs being bid up more or less than properties without HOAs?

Sold Price to List Price: Chart: Detached with Percentiles

Sold Price To List Price By Week Chart

These are best if you use the interactive version on my website.

Sold Price To List Price By Month Chart

Sold Price To List Price Versus Price Chart

Sold Price To List Price Low Ball Offer Chart

Sold Price

The following shows the average sold price for various cities in Northern Colorado.

Appreciation Rate Using Last Year’s Actual Numbers

We tend to approximate appreciation at 3% of so when modeling Nomad, but if we were to use last year’s numbers our returns are different.

Assumptions

  • 20% down payment
  • Multiple the appreciation rate by 5
    • Nomad with 5% down is 20 times appreciation rate
  • Top 5% of cash flowing properties in MLS

Appreciation was almost 10% in Fort Collins, meaning that ROI from appreciation for last year was 5 times 10% or 50% if we had put 20% down. For nomads putting 5% down, that’s 20 times 10% or 200% return on our down payment investment… and that’s not including cash flow, debt pay down and tax benefits.

Average Sold Price/Total Square Feet

Sold price may not be the best measurement for appreciation. What happens if we are selling more larger homes? That would skew the average sold price up. If we equalize for square footage by dividing sold price by the total square feet we get a price per square foot. This is, in my opinion, a better measurement for appreciation.

Historical Sold Price per Total Square Foot with Percentiles

Historical Sold Price/TSF Comparing Cities

The following are charts comparing sold price per total square foot for the four primary cities in Northern Colorado yearly, quarterly and then monthly.

Historical Sold Price/TSF Comparing SFH to Multi-Units

Duplex Price Per Unit With Percentiles Chart

How many people are looking to buy a duplex, triplex or fourplex? Let’s take a look at the price per unit of these multi-units that are Nomad friendly.

Very few duplex data points for Windsor.

Residential Multi-Unit Price/Unit with Percentiles

And these are duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes are merged together on a price per unit basis.

Sold Price per Total Square Foot New versus Resale

Average Days On Market

Our Days On Market is measured from when a property is listed until it goes pending or sells. The clock continues to run when it is accepting backup offers like Active/Backup.

Average Days On Market Charts

There is definitely some seasonality to days on market as you see better in the monthly version of the average days on market for Fort Collins chart below.

Average Days on Market By Year and Price Band

Months of Inventory

If # of Listings got together with # Sold, they’d make Months of Inventory.

It is the number of months it would take to sell all the homes that are currently for sale, assuming that homes are selling at the same rate as they’ve been selling for the last several months.

Historical Months of Inventory

Historical Months of Inventory – Price Band Examples

The charts above also have the ability to show the months of inventory for various price bands. Here is a chart showing several price bands at once for Fort Collins only.

Historical Months of Inventory By Price Band Table

Months of Inventory – Year Over Year

Number of Foreclosures

The following shows the number of foreclosures that made it to the MLS by city and year.

Number of Short Sales

The following shows the number of short sales that made it to the MLS by city and year.

Number of Fix and Flips with > $30K Spread Chart

Number of Fix and Flips with > $30K Spread Table

Fix and Flips Average Gross Profit

Taxes/List Price with Fix and Flip Scatter and Percentiles Chart

This shows you one of the best ways to identify possible fix and flip properties. The first is the scatter plot for Greeley.

These are the summarized percentiles with the fix and flips highlighted in red.

Cash on Cash Return

Predictions

Here are my predictions.

Predictions for 2016

  • If months of inventory remains low
    • We will see continued upward pressure on price
    • Low days on market
    • Above asking price offers
      • Although unless we get back down to all time lows, it will less extreme than this last spring/summer
  • Interest rates will continue to inch up
    • This will decrease your buying power
      • So act early – especially Nomads
    • Temporary increase in demand as the train leaves the station
  • Hard to do buy, fix up and resell in hot market

What Happened 2016

We did see very low inventory levels. We saw significant upward pressure on price, low days on market and significant above asking price offers.

Interest rates remained low until after the presidential election results. Now they’re up almost .75% from before the election as we enter the new year. This will decrease buying power and return on investment from cash flow.

It was hard to find buy, fix up and resell properties in our current market, but those that were found seemed profitable.

Predictions for 2017

  • If months of inventory remains low
    • We will see continued upward pressure on price
    • Low days on market
    • Above asking price offers
      • Although unless we get back down to all time lows, it will less extreme than this last spring/summer
  • Interest rates will continue to inch up
    • This will continue to decrease your buying power
      • So act now – especially Nomads
    • Increase in demand as the train leaves the station
  • Continue to be hard to do buy, fix up and resell in hot market

Improvements

The following are improvements I plan to make to this page based on some of my Standard Process Improvement Questions.

  • Combine attached and detached for presentation to reduce the number of slides so I can slow down during the presentation.
  • Take each section of this presentation and put in on its own separate page. That way I can reference that section from other pages. For example… move the Months of Inventory to its own page.
  • Update charts for new presentation.
  • Write out my comments on the charts that I’d normally say in class so people can read them.
  • Any new charts to add?
    • Rent and number of for rent ads
    • Low ball offers

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